An Investigation and assessment of meteorological drought in Lake Urmia Basin using drought indices and probabilistic methods

Authors

  • Saadi Yousefi M.A in Physical Geography, Payame Noor University. Urmia, Iran
Abstract:

Drought is one of the most important weather-induced phenomena which may have severe impacts on different areas such as agriculture, economy, energy production, and society. A number of drought indices have been introduced and used in various countries to date. In the current study, four meteorological drought indices including Percent of Normal Precipitation Index (PNPI), Standard Index of Annual Precipitation (SIAP), Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI), and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) are compared and evaluated for monitoring droughts in Lake Urmia Basin in Iran. The comparison of indices was carried out based on drought classes that were monitored in the study area using 40 years of data (1966-2005). Two well-known probability approaches including Runs theory and Markov chain model, were used to estimate the probability of wet and dry periods. The frequency matrix is formed and the transition probability matrix of wet- dry spells is created accordingly based on maximum likelihood method. The equilibrium probability is calculated based on succeed power on probability matrix. The results demonstrated that among the drought indices, PNPI is not an appropriate index in annual estimates and SPI and RAI are better than other indices and their results are nearer to reality. The results indicated the equilibrium probability of very dry, dry, normal, wet and very wet periods is obtained 0.23, 0.27, 0.23, 0.17 and 0.1, respectively. 

Upgrade to premium to download articles

Sign up to access the full text

Already have an account?login

similar resources

an investigation and assessment of meteorological drought in lake urmia basin using drought indices and probabilistic methods

drought is one of the most important weather-induced phenomena which may have severe impacts on different areas such as agriculture, economy, energy production, and society. a number of drought indices have been introduced and used in various countries to date. in the current study, four meteorological drought indices including percent of normal precipitation index (pnpi), standard index of ann...

full text

Meteorological drought monitoring using several drought indices (case study: Salt Lake Basin in Iran)

Drought detecting is a necessary aspect of drought risk management. It is generally performed usingdifferent drought indices that are effectively continuous functions of rainfall and other hydro- meteorologicalvariables. A number of drought indices have been introduced and used in various countries to date. In thecurrent research, four meteorological drought indices including the standardized p...

full text

Evaluation of SPEI Drought Index and Trend Analysis Using Nonparametric Methods in the Selected Stations of Urmia lake Basin

   Identification of trend and drought characteristics play an important role in the development and management of water resources. In this study, the spatio-temporal characteristics of SPEI index in short, medium, long and annual scales (SPEI3, SPEI6 and SPEI9) in Urmia Lake basin were investigated. for this purpose, temperature and precipitation data from 4 synoptic stations of Tabriz, Urmia,...

full text

investigation of meteorological and hydrological drought using drought indices in qarehsou river basin

water crisis and drought are among the most important issues to which the human has been faced particularly in the recent years; hence, investigation of drought is so important in optimal water management. drought has been known as an environmental phenomenon which is inseparable from climate changes which can occur in any geographical region. various definitions have been presented since yet. ...

full text

meteorological drought monitoring using several drought indices (case study: salt lake basin in iran)

drought detecting is a necessary aspect of drought risk management. it is generally performed usingdifferent drought indices that are effectively continuous functions of rainfall and other hydro- meteorologicalvariables. a number of drought indices have been introduced and used in various countries to date. in thecurrent research, four meteorological drought indices including the standardized p...

full text

A new method for evaluation and comprehensive drought Monitoring in the Urmia Lake Basin using a Synthesized Drought Index (SDI)

Drought is a complex phenomenon caused by the breaking of water balance and it has always an impact on agricultural, ecological and socio-economic spheres. Although the drought indices deriving from remote sensing data have been used to monitor meteorological or agricultural drought, there are no indices that can suitably reflect the comprehensive information of drought from meteorological to a...

full text

My Resources

Save resource for easier access later

Save to my library Already added to my library

{@ msg_add @}


Journal title

volume 2  issue 2

pages  153- 164

publication date 2016-07-01

By following a journal you will be notified via email when a new issue of this journal is published.

Hosted on Doprax cloud platform doprax.com

copyright © 2015-2023